Ethan Hartley

PhD Student, Economics



I am a Ph.D. student in the Department of Economics at the University of Hawaii at Manoa advised by Dr. Michael Roberts. My research is in the areas of causal inference, the intersection of machine learning and econometrics, and environmental & energy economics. I am currently studying variable pricing mechanisms and energy sector decarbonization pathways using both observational data and capacity expansion modeling, the impacts of climate change on energy consumption, and the contemporaneous and chronic health effects of air pollution. My other work focues on technical applications of deep learning in econometrics as well as high performance computing for quantitative modeling and harnessing big data.

I am funded through the U.S. Department of Energy's IBUILD Graduate Research Fellowship managed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Additionally, I have spent time at Amazon on the Supply Chain Optimization Team working on experimental validation of causal machine learning methods.

Papers

Measuring the Social Net Benefits of COVID-19 Restrictions: The Case of Reduced Vehicle Use in a Pollution-Prone Region of Utah

Hartley, E., Caplan, A. (2021)

Working Papers

Time-of-Use Electricity Pricing: Implications of Hawai'i's Pilot Program

Distributional Impacts of Dynamic Pricing Transitions for Residential Electricity Consumers

Presentations

Evolving Efficiency: Optimizing Building Management in a High Renewable System with Variable Pricing 1/2025

I presented my work on the impacts of variable pricing on consumer welfare and decarbonization strategies as part of the The Energy Transition, Electricity Prices, and Consumer Behavior session hosted by AERE.

Building Efficiency Variable Pricing Energy Economics

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The Role of Dynamic Electricity Pricing in Decarbonization: Results from a National Model 1/2025

I presented my work on the impacts real-time pricing plays on decarbonization of the building sector and firm investment decisisons in energy efficiency technologies.

Variable Pricing Decarbonization Capacity Expansion Modeling

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Navigating the Future: The Interplay of AI and International Economics (Panel) 1/2025

Within the broader panel, I discussed the implications of innovations in artificial intelligence and machine learning on environmental economics, focusing on AI as a tool for solving problems in economic theory, the role of big data, and the impact on causal inference.

Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning International Economics Environmental Economics

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See All 5 Presentations